they call it, a scary event? >> scary fast. >> they brought on the jokes themselves as far as the markets, day one of a two-day fed meeting comes out tomorrow that's the big event obviously overnight, the question is just the tone, because we don't expect the fed to do anything but how will they frame where they're going to do more in december >> it explains the narrow range today. to post 9 and the judge. carl, thanks so much welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner front and center this hour, after three straight down months for stocks, some much-needed relief finally in sight. the investment committee debating the road ahead as several members make newport f portfolio moves. lot of stuff going on today. check the markets. we've been mixed for much of the session. the dow is positive. the nasdaq a touch negative, 4.86 the yield on the ten-year note three straight months of declines it's been a bit of a rough stretch. most want to know if there's

still a chance for a year end rally. november is the best month of the year traditionally december second. seasonality is on our side >> yeah. >> i see you have a new buy and it's amd and that company reports today in "ot," but why is it part of the josh brown portfolio now >> it's been on my radar for a long time. i had been in and out of it before, a long time ago. amd, i think, is at an interesting moment in the company's history. tonight they'll report earnings. the earnings, of course, are always important, but what's more important than the numbers themselves is what lisa sue has to say about the launch of the new ai chip. so, look, this is a market that nvidia basically owns. and the h-100 chip is what turned nvidia into a trillion dollar company what i would say is if you look at the history of technology, it

is highly unlikely any one company maintains 90 to 100% market share forever amd is the chip maker that has the best shot to capture 25, maybe 30% of this market over the next five years. and when i say this market, understand something the market for ai chips could be literally $150 billion if you listen to what intel says, what qualcomm says, not just amd's opinion i think they have a shot at this tonight is a very big moment they'll talk about the launch which happens this quarter there are two types of chips for ai two types of chips for ai, training, nvidia, that's how they teach the systems how to operate. the other market, the more important market longer term, is inference. amd's architecture is specifically geared toward capturing meaningful share in inference. inference is like when you go on

a large language model, you post a query. that's how it responds on an ongoing basis. amd is walking through the door of becoming a serious player the stock down from 158, here in the mid-90s. i have a small position. i wanted to make sure i was in before they came out that could meaningfully move the stock. >> it's been dicey, lightly, for the smh and the chips. nvidia is barely above $400. it's the most loved, you could argue, of all of the names even though i know it's not the most loved for you. that's where broadcom comes in jonathan krinsky says, come at the king, you'd better not miss, talking about nvidia and suggest at least 10% more down side is ahead. now i know because it's not yours. you may not have a specific opinion on nvidia but the space itself can't afford, i'm saying,

to have an amd miss today and nvidia break down another 10%. a lot of other names will go down with it if it does. >> of course that's where your opportunity will be. the pc market is bottoming i do think that we're also hearing the end market is bottoming. we heard from lam research they increased guidance twice so far. the stock is still down a lot from a year he ago so i do think you'll be able to pick your spots. br broadcom is getting wrapped up 55% of their revenues is going to be recurring. i think there are opportunities. you asked at the top of the show if you think -- if we think there's a rally into the end of the year, i absolutely do. i think the sentiment is washed out here you're looking at the s&p

oscillator, you look at josh's rsi stuff. it's pointing to negative sentiment. i think the fed is done. even if they go one or two more times, they're done. they're in the ninth inning and we're not going into extra innings. i know you were going to ask me that peak rates, we are seeing peak rates. look at the bond market. look at gdp and pce and eci today. it's kind of like in a trading range right now, not exploding higher so i think you're starting to see a peak in rates as well. earnings are coming in better than expected. 2.5%, 3% isn't something to get so excited about but it isn't a negative >> so, jimmy, it's going to depend a lot on rates in terms of late-year rally the fed meeting is beginning today. nothing really expected. there's your market picture, ten year at 4.87 consumer confidence remains

strong middle east oil, yes, it's a wild card as world bank suggests you get a deeper escalation of the war over there, you could get oil to 157 steph has some moves, but size it all up. >> let's start where you ended on oil you could go to 150. it's the same discussion we were having when russia invaded ukraine and a lot of really smart oil analysts were saying we're going to 200, not we may go to 200. that turned out to be the case if it worsens, that's bad for stocks, it being the middle east let's assume it stabilizes at some point soon. i think the bigger point here, and steph was making it, this u.s. economy is a lot stronger than it has been or is being given credit to it the upshot that have is the cyclical sectors of the market have stunk for a long period of time a lot of times you've come to me and said how much more patient can you be, jimmy, on specific names. i think that is the right word

to use for everybody listening it is a question of patience in my opinion, the biggest virtue in the stock market i think you're soon going to be seeing the cyclical companies continue to outperform, outearn what their share prices are reflecting and it's showing up in their balance sheets. now just to sum this up, what i'm looking for this week is the labor market report. to your point, scott, on interest rates, yes, yes interest rates are what matters right now. the flow of fund into bonds. you're looking for the friday report to show ameliorating wage growth if you get that, it's going to back the fed off even more that's what i'm looking for. >> steph, in terms of oil, the two moves you have i want to get through before we bring in our headline guest. you trimmed chevron and added to slb. can you tell me about those two things chevron has not traded well recently, as you know. >> it hasn't and it was a terrible quarter and you know i'm always looking for good quarters where stocks

sell off this was a terrible quarter and the stock sold off, appropriately so and that is because they missed earnings and they missed free cash flow and they actually are buying back less stock than they actually guided to, and they guided for less buybacks as well the whole reason i owned this, they were buying back stock and were actually increasing the dividend while they were increasing capex now you do three deals and you're short on cash flow. so, to me, i would much prefer schlumberger which beat, guided to mid-20s in margins and ebitda growth in general and have pricing power and technology, and i think there's much more upside f., in fact, oil prices do go higher this is much more levered to the underlyin commodity. so you'll get more juice if it goes higher. if it goes lower, it will have a lot of juice, but i think oil prices stay about this level and they're printing money >> energy the worst sector year to date in a bad month down 6.5% almost

>> ugly. >> -- on the month no one wants a spike to the degree of 150 bucks that will have broad implications on a lot of stuff the middle east has gone real bad and you get a spike and that has implications in and of itself just ranked number one in both portfolio strategy and quantitative research by institutional investor, inducted into their all america hall of fame, the chief global equity strategist at jpmorgan congratulations. >> thank you >> good to have you back >> thanks for having me. >> by virtue of these accolades, your point of view matters to a lot of people. you heard jim suggest that the economy is doing much better than people think it is. you're one of the doubters about where the economy is going let's match this up. >> absolutely. i am one of the doubters i've been a doubter even the last time i was here on the set when the market was higher

for us macro is really the big headwind that markets are facing higher for longer. cost of capital being elevated is something we've talked about since february liquidity is getting sucked out of the system as well which is a pretty big and important headwind there's geo politics we can talk about, but that's very hard to handicap fundamentals, to your point, i agree. i think i see them slowing they're just not collapsing. and the word i would use on the fundamental size, increasing bifurcation on the fundamental side >> it sounds like the crux of your argument is built around the idea the lag effects will be felt more than people realize today. fair >> very fair i think there is a lagged effect the lag may be longer than we're accustomed to seeing because of the unprecedented injection we

got during covid and the relatively healthy starting point for things like balance sheets >> jimmy, i want to you respond. you have a more sanguin view >> always good to see you, dubravko i think you'll agree the economy has done a lot better than expected a lot more lagged than any of us expected we can disagree about the path going forward. these companies have outearned and cleaned up their balance sheet. doesn't that actually perversely extend the lag further if they have less debt to refinance, what we're worried about on the corporate side, refinance at the much higher rates except there's a lot less debt because they've paid down a lot with all the extra cash flow.

is that right? >> i think that's broadly right but that's one part of the picture. i think for the s&p 500, balance sheets are in a pretty good spot rates are going higher is a headwind but just the gradual headwind the problem is i think as you move down the spectrum you look at mid caps, the entire private sector, there's a more significant portion of that that's variable. everything that has happened from cost of capital has happened under a healthy top line demand type scenario. pricing power has been strong. >> forgive me, why aren't companies laying off people? >> i think that's the lagged effect i think that's the risk we're facing in 2024 one statistic, the s&p 500, if i'm not mistaken, the balance

sheet, employs only 12 million, 13 million people. if you look at mid caps, small cap, private sector, 60 million, 70 million >> small caps are in a bear market already, though what if a lot of what you're saying is true and priced in the russell is not the s&p >> i think things are definitely getting priced in but, to me, that's a sign the market is telling you things are slowing down we're hanging on to the magnificent 7, magnificent 11. that's telling us. i think we'd better hope the nvidias of the world keep really rolling in very strong numbers the second that goes, what do you hang on to >> has the consumer and the strength of the consumer surprised you? they've been resilient and that's tied to the labor market. i was bullish about the labor

market being resilient and as a result higher wages. you heard from mcdonald's and coke and pepsi they do have pricing power better demand from the consumer, better margins they have pricing power and operating leverage >> very valid point. there's macy's, coastco, the lower end is getting squeezed harder and harder. >> we didn't hear from mcdonald's yesterday that's for sure. >> last year we were defending the consumer this year my problem with the consumer -- again, i use the word bifurcation the upper is sitting still in good liquidity the problem is the lower 50% is getting squeezed excess liquidity how much liquidity households have inflation adjusted, lower 40% by income cohort is below pre-covid levels

the middle 40% is at pre-covid levels the upper 20% is still above so we're basically hanging on to the upper income to keep carrying us forward. >> i feel that's always the case >> no. the bottom 80% drives 60% of household consumption and right now retail, if you look at retail numbers and consumption, it's running above trend so i think there's a very legitimate risk where retail sales at a minimum go down to trend. that's what we're seeing next year is the expectation and a multiple of 18 i just think very hard to get excited about. >> we have a bifurcated view, josh, where the market is going from here. it's the everything looks pretty good view, these two, to where the puck is going, the ice starts to melt

that's the greatest issue we have to get an answer to before we can have a real comprehensive view about where stocks go from here >> in other words, can the deceleration in growth -- is there enough time for this lower consumer to hang on until the deceleration in growth stops and we're into a new cycle so you sound like the answer is no and i'm inclined to agree with you, but here is the get out of jail free card that might work out this time if we do get down to 3% inflation and then 2.8 and 2.5 and that tremendous pressure on the lower income consumer or the middle of the road consumer even, abates slightly, and what's left standing is this incredible labor market. keep adding 100,000, 200,000 jobs a month the fed in a position they can take the boot off the neck, even if that's not for a year from now, isn't that the get out of

jail free card the russell 2000, 12 times earnings, mid caps 12 times earnings, s&p 17.7 forward earnings not egregiously overpriced that's -- i know it's not -- maybe not the most highly likely scenario, but it is a likely scenario and that might force you to change your mind. i don't know if and when >> it's certainly plausible. all of these things we talk about that we forecast that has a big stain around it, it's hard to say things with conviction in unique times if i had to pick a side, the side i stand on, putting different probabilities together, if you get some form of significance productivity boom in this economy and maybe ai can drive it or maybe not, but if you can pull that off, yes, i think the cycle can get extended >> that's one of the views, by the way, of jimmy and ed yardeni, people who are positive about the market, do think you're going to get that and it will offset some of the

negatives that are predicted to occur. let me ask you this. your price target at the end of the year is roughly where we are now. you're looking, for the most part, nothing to happen here your mid-picture view is more that earnings estimates are overinflated and stocks will have to come down as we get into '24. we're about to have a fed decision we will not get much of any decision what if the fed is done and what if the next move they make is a cut? what if the economy holds up strong enough earnings don't collapse to the degree you think they might >> the market and risky assets in the recent weeks, maybe even recent month or two or three, have been largely trading off of two key risk factors what's happening with rates on the back end and obviously the situation in geo politics, the middle east, oil, that you discussed earlier. the fed may be done, very well, but the back end of the curve, everything we're seeing the last two, three months, keeps hiking for the fed. and largely for supply reasons meaning the discount rate keeps

getting increased for corporates, for the consumer without necessarily clear growth offset maybe the fed is done, but if the 10 year, the 30 year, goes to 5.25, 6, our ceo jamie di dimon -- that creates a tricky backdrop >> of course what's the likelihood of that actually happening >> i think a lot of it is supply, is driven by the amount of supply, debt supply to finance the deficit. >> we'll learn more on wednesday. there was no big shock in the preliminary announcement if you want to call it that >> $5.5 trillion worth of balance sheets have come off in the last six quarters. central bankers are not talking about reversing qt anytime soon. you have china, the japan factor, which is also marginal head winds let's hope that yields are stabilized >> okay. >> what do you think earnings

will be for next year? you said 12% is too high >> we're at 230. i don't say that with much conviction i would say 230 with a down side risk >> back to rates before we move off that because, you know, that scenario mr. dimon has said is a hyperbolic prediction. the what if. what if rates are done going up? do you have to change your view if that's the case >> i think a lot of people were disagreeing with this view of higher rates but it turns out he's been spot on. if rates are done -- >> i'm saying 6% or 7% -- >> no, no. on the upper end but i'm saying if rates are done and pause here, in the very short term, you easily could get a tactical short squeeze, short covering. would i chase it i would not chase it would i fade it? i would fade it and re-emphasize

the short side of the trade. i think begin the market is correct, we're back at february levels, we're at our price target, this moment i don't have a high conviction we have to go lower. as i think about 2024, i just don't like the picture >> let me ask you about mega caps since we haven't focused on it, you said it's a small group of stocks which everybody at this point knows about is there any reason to believe that trade will turn south now it's had a rough three months, i'll give you that but the minute that those stocks are deemed to be cheap enough, which started to happen last week why wouldn't money continue to go there >> it's possible money could go into that. >> probable? >> i think the earnings -- very solid. >> they were, weren't they >> you can talk about microsoft versus a google, apple softness in top line continues to decelerate.

i think numbers have to keep coming in strong because it's a very, very crowded trade everybody is hiding there. and concentration in the market is at the highest point in 56 years. what could happen, also, more money goes into nvidia or the magnificent seven. they become cheaper and cheaper and an even more extreme environment until things roll over >> what's the best place today, in your mind -- right now. >>he whole year we have been saying cash is king. why? you can clip 5% yield at zero risk the sharp ratio is pretty good equities better give you 12%, 15%. not that easy. the other thing i'll mention is bond proxies so think about areas -- >> utilities >> absolutely, yes utilities, defensive health care maybe even some pockets of

staples. they've gotten hit hard. if the back end keeps moving even higher, i think you have to start pricing in a higher chance of prices and recession in which case you want to buy a more defensive exposure if rates stabilize or move lower as perhaps another is suggesting, i would be favoring higher quality, more reception proof areas. another thing that comes to mind is dividend aristocrats, for instance that have been this favored over the course of the year >> that was fun. i appreciate you being here. the hall of famer, congratulations again. that's dubravko lakos of jpmorgan joining us here at post 9. we'll talk to you soon we're getting more news out of the sam bankman-fried trial kate rooney outside the courthouse kate >> reporter: scott, sam bankman-fried has wrapped up his testimony. the defense has officially rested its case. he is off the stand. the jury was actually sent home for the day. so they're going to have a

charging conference. it will pick back up tomorrow at 9:30 with the jury slightly less hostile tone from founder this morning bankman-fried was on the stand and started off with the prosecution questioning his, quote, cozy relationship with the bohemian prime minister, if he paid off the bahama debt, more than $11 billion of national debt. he responded he didn't remember discussing that, was asked about the prime minister visiting miami. a heat game with his wife, he was given courtside seats. a dinner with bill clinton, tony blair and that prime minister and was asked about the $8 billion bug discovered we talked about that in the case he deeply regretted that and not taking a deeper look he admitted he didn't ever fire anyone he said he regretted that as well questioning that side the prosecution ended about an hour ago. then the redirect from the defense attorneys. they tried to clarify what was

talked about yesterday they revisited some of the articles they mentioned, bankman-fried estimated he gave around 50 interviews right after the collapse of that crypto exchange he said he doesn't recall every statement that he made to journalists. as for the "eff regulators comment," he said he was frustrated and felt the work he had done might have encouraged bad regulation, tried to clarify it there on alameda's $65 billion line of credit bankman-fried said that was the maximum but never nearly that amount it was closer to $2 billion according to his testimony finally, he was questioned on private jet use. that was talked about this morning. he explained he thought it was a valid business expense as a ceo. he talked about some travel that he did from the bahamas to d.c prosecutors will begin their rebuttal we expect that to happen next. they are having this charging conference, so the jury will head home, scott we'll bring you any updates.

back to you. >> kate rooney outside the courthouse, lower manhattan. up next, our "chart of the day. one industrial stock under pressure on a weak china outlook. committee member kevin simpson told us last week he would add on a pullback. well, he's getting it. he doing it? he'll tell us next

the power goes out and we still have wifi to do our homework. and that's a good thing? great in my book! who are you? no power? no problem. introducing storm-ready wifi. now you can stay reliably connected through power outages with unlimited cellular data and up to 4 hours of battery back-up to keep you online. only from xfinity. home of the xfinity 10g network.

welcome back "chart of the day" it's cat. take a look, falling almost 6% after earnings the company issuing an underwhelming sales outlook. china is a big story here. it expects continued weakness in demand from china. china manufacturing pmi below 50 the worst month since june of '22 for cat. kevin simpson joins us now so i appreciate you coming back on you bought more of the stock on friday, right? you said if it goes down again, you're going to buy more what's the update? >> the real thesis was to hold off and wait for earnings. if they didn't blow it off on their forecast, their margins, we would see the stock come down we will add to the position

today. i never try to pick a bottom but if we can let some of the sellers get out of the way we will be adding to the position here it's different than what i saw with u.p.s u.p.s. margins were down from 13% to 8%. the net caused us to remove the position that's too unhealthy for the short term the numbers are down slightly. the recession isn't great for an industrial for sure, but looking longer term, we want to own companies that are not dependent upon capital markets this company can generate enough cash flow to get through an economic slowdown, no doubt, and we think the infrastructure bill will play out in a multiyear phase for caterpillar. there's definitely head winds, but i'm add to go it and will do so on pullbacks. >> you say not dependent on capital markets but is on

emerging markets is it a real problem >> that's been expected. that's been priced into the stock. the past two weeks, there was a lot of pullback after the chinese cpi. if you look at headlines, a lot of reports saying their bag log is down a lot. it's really down 3%. a company that has such magnitude so they're talking about declines of $2 billion year over year it's $2 billion on $60 billion to $65 billion the other challenge is inflation. some of that's price appreciation and , yes, this isa challenged environment we're looking at a forward p/e of 12.

whatever we go through, an economic contraction or recession, these are even further removed from that. i think this is a good entry point. we'll build out this position. i'm not scared by the numbers i'm looking at here. >> i turn to our expert, steph you sold cat about 18 months ago, i think you do own deere, that is down as well, probably on this news why do you no longer own it and choose deere instead >> you don't need to own both. i like the ag cycle. they're sold out in terms of equipment for 2023 farmer income is off the charts, inflation is coming down so i prefer deere. i agree in terms of the backlog.

the biggest question people have is it weakening demand i think it's the latter. i don't have a problem buying it here i prefer the cheaper version >> jimmy >> this is a case for me where i look at companies in the current earnings, they're outearning and multiples are very cheap i'm not the expert on cat. they have to do something with it are they increasing their dividend are you still there? >> yeah. and historically this is a company that's increased its dividend at 5% to 8% for the past five years. they have been committed to paying down debt they're probably in less of a rush to do so because of where their financing is we do own john deere like stephanie, we sold out of cat maybe a year and a half ago.

recently looking at these things go down, companies longer term are undervalued and the idea of us owning john deere and caterpillar is something we haven't done before either you can't ignore the cash flow for the foreseeable future, the near term, it's cash on cash that's what we're looking at this is a company that has the ability to continue to improve for shareholders the share price, the share buybacks which they have been committed to over the past few years and the dividend growth with john deere and caterpillar. the headlines now, courtney reagan the white house is proposing a new rule to protect retirement security the proposal would require financial advisers to provide

requirement guidance in the best interest of their saver rather than the highest payday. currently some financial advisers are paid to recommend products that favor their financial interest at the expense of the saver the rule would close these loopholes. 40 countries are forming an alliance against paying ransom to cyber criminals the international counter ransomware initiative comes as nearly half of the attacks in the u.s. with two high profile companies mgm and clorox were hit last month the massachusetts witch-hunt justice project is looking to persuade the state to reckon with its early history asking for an apology and to clear the name of those accused, indicted or arrested for witchcraft in the early 1600s. coming up our "calls of the day. a big upgrade for a stock both steph and jim own. we will detail that when we come

back with the dow down just about nine points. the s&p is a fractional winner we'll see you in two minutes (♪♪) (♪♪) (♪♪) (♪♪) (♪♪) (sfx: stone wheel crafting) ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪

squeeze up, down, squeeze up. technology helps you stay fit. [phone rings] sorry, i got to take this call. what about our quads? but to keep your hybrid workforce in shape, you need more than technology. you need intel and cdw. we can custom configure pcs on the intel vpro platform. i can custom configure your abs. hardware based security and remote manageability let you monitor and protect devices. - this is so nice. - it's so nice. your mother is going to love her, by the way. oh boy. ♪♪

our "calls of the day," we'll start it off with boeing upgrades buy to neutral, target 217. that's 20%, jim. 20% upside from here >> i find that kind of easy. the analyst is looking long term and not short term everybody is fretting about this with spirit aerosystems. that's what they do and there are very good engineers. the stock going from 240 to 180. i think 217 is too low i think it will exceed that. >> steph >> i think it's a duopoly.

they have ten years worth of visibility if you're thinking about the long game, that's what you have to think about as they produce and deliver, free cash flow will be increasing they have a $10 billion free cash flow guide by 2025, and if they can deliver on increasing this production, they will be easily surpassing that >> the other call we wanted to do was disney. it gets reiterated outperform. the price target gets cut to 100 from 110 josh, i know you don't own it, but you do have strong opinions about it i'm wondering if there's a point in this stock, about 80 bucks, where you take a look and you buy it >> is there anything i don't have strong opinions about >> this is one in particular i walk into that this is one in particular you've had strong opinions about. the stock is down from a 52-week high of 118 to 81. >> i really want to like disney enough to buy the stock, because i really like when an amazing

company is at a point in its life cycle where everyone is giving up on it. i think we're close. i think we will get the stock low 70s. it's probably not that big of a deal if i miss it, honestly. i just want the satisfaction of buying it when it's truly, truly washed out the problem with disney, the news keeps getting worse and the answers -- you have melting iceberg businesses, and the longer that goes on for, the eventual valuation if you're going to sell something goes lower and lower and lower. espn is going to be a problem. it's going to continue to be a problem. i don't know what the strategic answer is. the analyst makes the case espn could have negative operating income within just a few years why? nba contract comes up. they're going to have to pay an

ungodly amount of money. bidding against apple. good luck. have fun with that they have this lingering problem with businesses and i don't think reorganizing it is the solution i'm watching it, i'm waiting i don't think nelson pelts has the answer to what should be done it's a tough stock i think there's a chance i just think you wait >> strong opinions from a man with strong opinions that was well said one of the phrasings you said i would like to keep on, melting ice cube that is what was said about the newspaper industry in the 1990s with the advent of the internet. that was right back then however, to the point, josh, you're making and others have made about espn, the demise of linear, i don't think disney is going down the path newspapers will go down i think they will monetize espn

in the same way they're proving to streaming the hulu transaction will be done end of the year let's get that done with >> a lot of money. >> maybe they'll sell the streaming businesses, sell to abc, maybe they'll take out debt i don't know $9 billion to $12 billion is what we're talking about it is not -- the linear business, it's being transformed into a different substance, namely streaming >> they have a lot of debt they shoulding using cash flow to pay down the debt >> you are absolutely right. >> that's one of the reasons steph gave up on it. >> i understand, i disagree their right move is to pay that debt down. i don't know the indian streaming business, cricket rights, maybe they should go for that

>> the profits came from bristol. why is everyone having trouble with it? >> i'm not having trouble with it i get your point it's very well made. >> but you do dismiss his point, though >> i'm not dismissing it i disagree that's a big difference. you're saying the ice cube will melt >> streaming profits from hulu will never offset -- they had a golden goose they had 100 million cable subscribers paying $10 a month to espn whether they watched one minute of sports or zero minutes -- >> let him finish. let him finish, please >> it was 100 million cable subs they're going to launch their own over-the-top streaming i wish them well i don't know where the pricing will be.

i don't know how many subs for that app once them shoot that shot, everyone collectively will go, okay, now what i don't know the answer. >> josh, i don't know the answer either i don't know if you get in the low 70s or not this idea that espn is a zero -- >> no, no -- >> relax there might be negative operating income, i think that's too zra conian draconian >> the price for sports rights go up or down within the next three years? >> let's not do the 20 questions. i will agree >> declining subs, higher price for sports -- >> now you're purposely missing my point >> all right, i'm done

up next, michael santoli joins us with his "mdaidy word." "halftime" will be right back. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools, like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market.

e*trade from morgan stanley. with powerful, easy-to-use tools, power e*trade makes complex trading easier. react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity. e*trade from morgan stanley (♪♪) it's inspiring to work at a place where our patients succeed. and where we as therapists do, too. with great benefits from principal, our clinic shows they truly care about us. (♪♪) municipal bonds don't usually get the media coverage the stock market does. in fact, most people don't find them all that exciting. but, if you're looking for the potential for consistent income that's federally tax-free,

now is an excellent time to consider municipal bonds from hennion & walsh. if you have at least 10,000 dollars to invest, call and talk with one of our bond specialists at 1-800-217-3217. we'll send you our exclusive bond guide, free. with details about how bonds can be an important part of your portfolio. hennion & walsh has specialized in fixed income and growth solutions for 30 years, and offers high-quality municipal bonds from across the country. they provide the potential for regular income... are federally tax-free... and have historically low risk. call today to request your free bond guide. 1-800-217-3217. that's 1-800-217-3217.

mike santoli, our senior markets commentators, is here. the conversation we had at the top of the show and the counter view to some people who are more bullish is the quintessential argument, mike, where the puck is today to where some will see it in the future it will take a minute to find the answer in the meantime, we'll be in this spin. >> yes no doubt about it. you have the premise where everybody has been geared for a year and a half to say late cycle, when is the turn, when does it fall off the cliff if anything the market is looking more clearly at the idea that we can't really see a re-acceleration even though it's in the macro data. i do agree that's where the front lines and the debate lies,

if they're not coming through, it's a disaster. would i have told you whirlpool, chief. vf corp, and the numbers get cut and they go down it's tough to general around whether, in fact, part of the market have discounted earnings erosion but i do think there's a lot of opportunity in the market. it is tempting in these quiet times for the bond market to differentiate. outside of nvidia, semis are up today. i know that's a big exception. and you are seeing the banks outperform tech in the last few days so the laggards are trying to stabilize going into the fed but i think what you want to do is see if the market can get into a neutral spot. >> we might not idle out of the fed depending on what jay powell says more than what they do. i'll see you in a couple of hours on "closing bell." that's mike santoli. retail rec, the company is

down big jenny harrington owns it she will phone in with a trade update that's next. ♪ ♪ every day, businesses everywhere are asking: is it possible? with comcast business... it is. is it possible to help keep our online platform safe from cyberthreats? absolutely. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that, too. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening.

you got this. let's go. gobble gobble. i've seen bigger legs on a turkey! rude. who are you? i'm an investor in a fund that helps advance innovative sports tech like this smart fitness mirror. i'm also mr. leg day...1989! anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. i go through a lot of pants. before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com. ♪ is it possible to fall in love with your home... ...before you even step inside? ♪ discover the magnolia home james hardie collection.

available now in siding colors, styles and textures. curated by joanna gaines. ♪exciting music.♪ [mud splat.] [bird squawk.] and that's why i never drive those guys. the party's over big guy! we're tired of hearing “i don't wanna get my truck dirty.” with weathertech laser-measured floorliners front and rear... a seat protector ...and full bed protection... trucks are totally covered. you just got weatherteched. yeah, buddy. let's get dirty. [bikes in mud.] drive worry free with these american made products at weathertech.com. we are back. i want to show you shares of vf corps, down near 13% today

the company withdrawing next year's guidance. jenny harrington joins us now to discuss, because she owns the stock. wow, we are going to show a five-year chart, because it's down 80% in five years what do you do today with this >> well, let's remember as you look at it over five years, we only added this a couple months ago around $19 with the reason it was down so significantly because earnings had come in from their pandemic high the stock had gotten trashed so you kind of go through the stages of grief. first you want to throw up in the trash, then you get into self-soothing, look at the rest of the portfolio and settle yourself down and then get serious and look at tin vestment thesis it's an investment strategy. so i look at the income side of the investment, that's ruined.

they cut the dividend by 70% then the capital appreciation, and that's mostly in tact. it wasn't that terrible of a quarter. it was just the guidance and dividend where we had a problem. so earnings were fine, they came in at 53 cents, where expected revenues were at $3 billion. i look at that and say each if earnings get hit another 30% from here, they were supposed to be 210 for next year say they come in at $1.50, which is special, right? the stock is sill trading at ten times. the original investment thesis was predicated on a turn around advance. that's still in tact what they are doing now is saying hey, we're going to take money from the dividend and aggressively attack this turn around and with more money than we started >> i'm sorry to cut you off, but the problem is, it's -- this is cramer talking this morning. it's not going to happen overnight. and it's going to be a long-term thing.

so, you know, this sounds to me like an original thesis of what you -- investment thesis that you thought you had, has quickly fallen apart >> not really. i think in some ways it's sped up, that's unfortunate for me because they took the dividend income away, that part fell apart. but what they are doing that money is trying to -- >> but it's not going to happen faster that's the whole point >> it was never going to happen overnight anyway you have a new ceo, he's kitchen sinking it, and i think it's going to happen faster but it stinks for right now and really disappointing >> i'm sorry that i have to cut you short. we'll talk about it more, but thanks for calling in. tough stock to look at i know you're feeling the pain on that. "final trades" are next.

3:00 eastern, final hour of trade. taking you right up to the close. and those earnings, which he's going to be watching closer than ever josh brown, quick us off >> the one that got away a-net, what a report this is another ai play. i sold it at 185, so you're free to watch this go to 250 without me >> ge health care. really good quarter.

they saw operating margins expand, which is what we wanted to see down 27% from its highs. i think it's a buy >> they raised prices for the third time in a month. prices and volumes are going up with the end of the uaw strike what's not to like >> good stuff. thanks for watching, everybody "the exchange" is now. thank you very much, scott welcome to "the exchange." i'm dominic chu in for kelly evans. just over 24 hours on the fed's decision on interest rates, so will the committee hold steady in back-to-back meetings for the first time since early last year we'll look ahead to tomorrow and what it means for stocks and bonds. plus, mortgage rates remain near historic highs, at least for this cycle but one stock is riding that wave to become the nation's number one servicer, closing in on a